{"id":4284,"date":"2026-09-23T09:02:24","date_gmt":"2026-09-23T07:02:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thinktank-transit.ch\/?post_type=dialogue&p=4284"},"modified":"2026-09-23T09:02:26","modified_gmt":"2026-09-23T07:02:26","slug":"mr-oesch-is-it-a-myth-that-the-labour-market-is-polarised","status":"publish","type":"dialogue","link":"https:\/\/thinktank-transit.ch\/en\/dialogue\/mr-oesch-is-it-a-myth-that-the-labour-market-is-polarised\/","title":{"rendered":"Mr Oesch, is it a myth that the labour market is polarised?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\n

About Daniel Oesch<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Daniel Oesch is associate professor in sociology at the University of Lausanne. He conducts research on developments in the labour market, the importance of occupational groups and societal changes in both Switzerland and abroad. The issue of polarisation is one of great importance in his research.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The polarisation hypothesis, which has been around since the 1990s, claims that technological change is thinning out the middle class: levels of employment in both high and low-skilled jobs are on the rise while jobs with intermediate levels of skill are increasingly under pressure. In your research, however, you talk of the \u2018myth of polarisation\u2019. Why is that?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The polarisation hypothesis was originally formed using data from the US. Researchers observed an increase in the number of people employed in highly paid jobs, while jobs with average pay declined. There was also slight growth at the lower end of the scale. Overall, this development resembles a J curve more than a U curve: strong growth at the top, stagnation or decline in the middle, and slight growth at the bottom. In Switzerland, we are also observing strong growth in jobs requiring higher skills, but virtually no growth at the other end of the scale. Similar trends can be observed in many other European countries. This is plausible, given that the supply of well-qualified workers has increased thanks to the greater availability of education. At the same time, technological change and globalisation since the 1990s have also led to greater demand for highly qualified employees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You have also studied[1]<\/a> the conditions under which polarisation occurs at different places, and you refer to it as \u2018polarised upgrading\u2019. What do you mean by that?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We analysed changes in employment over the past thirty years in the ten largest cities in the UK and Germany. We observed a similar trend across all British cities: strong growth in highly qualified occupations, particularly among academic experts and managers. There was also an increase in personal services, while the number of production worker, skilled worker and office assistant jobs shrank. In an international comparison, the UK resembles the American model. There was growth at the lower end of the pay scale, particularly in low-skilled personal services. This growth was linked to various factors, including high levels of immigration from new EU member states following EU enlargement in 2004.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A similar picture emerged in Germany, although growth in low-skilled services was significantly weaker. Jobs in manufacturing and skilled trades were in decline, while the number of office support staff was stagnating and personal services were only seeing muted growth. It was not until the 2000s that the situation began to change, driven by high unemployment and the Hartz reforms. This led to the emergence of a comparatively large low-wage sector. However, this trend was later partially reversed, partly due to the introduction of the minimum wage and its subsequent increases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The findings to which the polarisation hypothesis refers originally stem from the US. Why have developments in the US taken a different course to those in Switzerland?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two factors were particularly important. First, the high levels of immigration from countries such as Mexico and other Central American countries. Many of these people worked in low-skilled sectors for low wages. Second, minimum wages were low and collective bargaining agreements provided limited coverage. Together, these factors made it possible to create a large number of low-paid jobs. Consequently, there are jobs in the US that are practically unknown in Europe, such as clerks who greet customers at the entrance to a supermarket or assist with packing shopping at the till. Such jobs are only economically viable if wages are kept very low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By contrast, many sectors in Switzerland have minimum wages set by collective bargaining agreements, including the hotel and service industries, the cleaning sector, and temporary employment agencies. This means that there are binding minimum wage thresholds in sectors where wages could otherwise be very low, which prevents the low-wage sector from expanding significantly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Your studies highlight this phenomenon, showing that Switzerland\u2019s occupational structure features relatively little polarisation. One factor that explains this is the minimum wage applicable to specific sectors, as you explained earlier. However, you also attribute the occupational structure to the education system, which produces a large number of people with intermediate and higher qualifications. What aspects of the Swiss education system and landscape make such results possible?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Switzerland has a highly effective education system, largely thanks to the vocational education and training system, which enables many people to achieve an intermediate level of qualification. This is evident in immigration figures: there is high immigration among people with tertiary qualifications and among those who have only attended compulsory schooling. There are comparatively few immigrants with an educational level between these two extremes, i.e. those with an upper secondary qualification. This is because Switzerland ensures that a large proportion of its own population already attains at least an upper secondary level of education. The key factor here is that vocational education and training are closely aligned with the labour market, meaning people can be easily integrated into the workforce.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Examining the development of the Swiss education system over the last few decades reveals that far fewer people today have a secondary-level vocational qualification as their highest educational qualification. However, this does not mean that fewer people are completing an apprenticeship. Many go on to further their education and obtain a tertiary qualification, whether through professional education and training or at a university of applied sciences or a university. Among people aged 35, around half of this group currently holds a tertiary-level qualification. In my view, this is a very positive development: vocational education and training provides a pathway for people to gradually gain further qualifications up to tertiary level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A concept closely linked to the labour market is that of ‘class affiliation’. This concept goes hand in hand with the potential polarisation of the labour market, since it is usually income from paid work rather than wealth that determines which social class a person belongs to. One of your studies examines the relationship between subjectively perceived social class and household wealth and income. Your studies found that a person\u2019s subjective perception of their social class is a very good predictor of these factors, even better than objective measures of class affiliation. How is that possible? Don’t people misjudge their own class affiliation?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For a long time, sociologists assumed that people did not have a clear idea of their social class. However, international surveys show that, when given a choice between clearly defined categories, people are surprisingly accurate in classifying themselves. These classifications are a relatively good predictor of household income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Interestingly, however, hardly anyone describes themselves as belonging to the ‘upper class’. Even individuals with considerable privilege tend to see themselves as belonging to the upper middle class. The term ‘upper class’ is often associated with inherited privilege, whereas ‘upper middle class’ comes across as being more meritocratic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You often criticise the term \u2018middle class\u2019. Why is that?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My main concern is with the German term ‘Mittelstand’, not ‘middle class’. In Switzerland, people often talk about the Mittelstand: ‘Who is the Mittelstand?’ or ‘The Mittelstand is under pressure.’ However, this term originates from the feudal system of the Middle Ages, and we no longer live in a feudal society today. Moreover, it is now used in such a way that it encompasses practically everyone. Everyone from Christoph Blocher to the unskilled labourer is considered to belong to the middle class. The only exceptions are a handful of the super-rich and those in receipt of social support. Politicians are keen to promote this idea because it suggests that we are all in the same socio-economic boat. Consequently, we talk less about social differences or inequality, and focus more on other differences. While this standpoint has become widely accepted in Switzerland, from a sociological perspective it makes little sense. As industrialisation took hold, this social order was replaced by a class-based society comprising an upper, middle and lower class.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Could you explain that further?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Historically, the working class has been by far the largest social group since the Industrial Revolution. Far more people worked in manufacturing or manual occupations than in offices or other non-manual roles. There was also a smaller middle class comprising merchants, teachers, lawyers, civil servants and so on, as well as a very small but powerful upper class that owned capital, land and businesses. Therefore, historically, what we would call the middle class today was never ‘arithmetically’ in the middle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the Federal Statistical Office’s definition, you are considered middle class once your income reaches 70 per cent of the median income. For a single-person household, this equates to approximately 4,230 Swiss francs gross per month. In the canton of Geneva, the minimum wage for a full-time position is slightly higher than this. Ultimately, this means that almost every working person is classified as middle class. As soon as someone is no longer dependent on social security, they are considered middle class. In the FSO\u2019s defence, however, they do distinguish between the lower and upper middle classes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nevertheless, it does raise the question of what lies below the middle class. In the past, people spoke of the working and middle classes; today, however, it seems that anyone who works automatically belongs to the middle class. From a sociological point of view, that does not really convince me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet politicians often speak of a \u2018middle class under threat\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Politically, this is an appealing narrative because referring to the ‘middle class’ is unlikely to create any opposition, since everyone sees themselves as belonging to this group. However, I find the approach of the French economist Thomas Piketty more interesting. He defines four social classes based on wealth. The lower half of the population comprises the working class (classes populaires)<\/em>, who have hardly any wealth. Next comes the middle class (la classe moyenne<\/em>), which typically possesses some wealth, primarily in the form of owner-occupied property, and is roughly defined as those in the 50th to 90th percentile. Above that is the upper middle class (classe moyenne sup\u00e9rieure<\/em>), from the 90th to the 99th percentile, which has additional financial or investment assets. Finally, the top one per cent \u2013 the upper class (classe sup\u00e9rieure<\/em>) \u2013 is reached. This one per cent represents around 50,000 people in Switzerland and has great social and economic significance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is currently a great deal of discussion about how technological developments in AI could transform the world of work, potentially rendering certain jobs obsolete. This would have a significant impact on socio-economic status and class affiliation. Mid-level and higher-level occupations are expected to be particularly affected. Is it still worth pursuing higher education?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From a historical perspective, over the last 150 years, higher education has never been a disadvantage, which is why I would not advise anyone today to drop out of their studies as early as possible for fear of being replaced by AI later on. However, it is clear that certain skills will become even more important in the future, particularly social skills, as these are much more difficult to automate or replace with AI. Many questions remain unanswered, though. Despite several major waves of technological progress over the past 120 to 150 years, total employment has not declined in the long term. Therefore, I would be cautious about overly pessimistic scenarios for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How can employees now respond to such changes? We are thinking upskilling and reskilling. What role does adult education play in this context?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I think there are essentially two directions in which adult education could develop in future. The first is how people can become more productive with the help of new technologies, particularly AI. Those who learn to use these tools effectively can work much more efficiently. Therefore, it is important to understand exactly how AI can be integrated into day-to-day working life and used productively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The second direction concerns skills that cannot be replaced by AI or that are becoming increasingly important precisely because they complement AI. These include social skills such as teamwork and communication. If AI generates additional demand, it will probably be in areas where human interaction remains central.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The situation at the moment is very fluid. What is clear is that people will have to learn to work with AI to become more productive. At the same time, the question arises as to which skills will remain particularly valuable precisely because they cannot be easily taken over by AI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

People with lower levels of education often find it difficult to use digital technologies. Is a new form of polarisation emerging here?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That’s a good question. I don\u2019t know if it will lead to a new form of polarisation, but it does remind me of the 1990s and early 2000s. Back then, computer science courses were widely available to help people acquire basic digital skills. Perhaps we need something similar in the field of AI today: courses that explain what AI is used for, how to use it effectively, how to evaluate results and how to assess its potential and limitations. Questions like these could form part of a new wave of digital literacy skills in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Perhaps many people will learn to use AI relatively quickly and naturally. It is difficult to say at the moment. However, these technologies have enormous potential, and we should probably try to make them as widely accessible as possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, which developments in the labour market will you be keeping a close eye on in the future?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One significant development is the expansion of education over recent decades, which we must keep a close eye on. The number of people with tertiary qualifications has increased dramatically. So far, these additional qualifications have largely been absorbed by the labour market. At the same time, the Swiss labour market has needed an increasing number of highly skilled workers, which is why many highly qualified people from abroad have come to Switzerland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it is possible that this trend may slow down in future, with the result that we may be moving towards a situation of over-qualification. Higher education graduates may no longer be in such high demand, partly because certain tasks could be taken over by AI. This raises the question of whether the labour market can continue to absorb this significant expansion in education. We may see a resurgence in vocational and professional education and training, such as the German model. In Baden-W\u00fcrttemberg, for instance, many young people first take their Abitur and then complete a dual vocational training programme combining work with a company and study at a vocational school, typically in subjects such as business studies, engineering, social work, and healthcare. It is difficult to predict the future, which is why it is important to properly understand past trends \u2013 and that is precisely what research aims to do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

[1]<\/a> Oesch, D., Morris, K., & Westenberger, G. J. (2025). Polarised upgrading: the changing occupational structure of large cities in Germany and the UK, 1991\u20132021. Journal for Labour Market Research, 59(1), 32.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In Switzerland, we are observing strong growth in jobs requiring higher skills, but virtually no growth at the other end of the scale. 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